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Punjab Elections and India's
Federal Government
WSN Bureau
 Read any book covering Indian politics circa 1940-1950, and not
necessarily a good book. You will find hundreds of references to
Sikh leadership, its decisions and how they affected the larger
fortunes of the nation or even nations at times. New Delhi used to
wait with baited breath how a Master Tara Singh will turn. India's
rulers were clear that Sikhs will have to be accomodated/tackled/overpowered/resisted/adjusted
in order to ensure that the country functions as one nation. We
could not just be brushed aside. We mattered. Jinnah talked to us.
The British talked to us. Congress leaders had to make promises to
us. Of course most were lies, but that's a story for another day.
Right now, as Punjab races towards elections, even a Mulayam Singh
Yadav's sneeze or Mamta Bannerjee's sting makes for bigger national
news than the political stand of the Akali Dal. The fact that
Simranjeet Singh Mann failed to cobble together a third front under
his leadership and that Ravi Inder Singh's machinations will only
end up dividing the Sikh vote did not make it to a single national
newspaper. Punjab is on the fringes of the national consciousness.
It does not impact the country's politics the way a Jayalalitha
does, it does not impact India's economy the way a Singur does.
Except that things may be different this time.
There is a dimension to the Punjab elections this time which the
newspapers covering Punjab have not paid much attention to in their
hurry to cover dissensions, revolts, aaya-ram-gaya-rams and
drugs-booze-money-sloganeering electioneering tampered with little
but lurid or crude advertisements in print media and new found pop
video stars in Prakash Singh Badal and Amarinder Singh currently
sizzling on Punjabi TV channels.
Watch carefully the political terrain. The electoral earth is
trembling. Naxalite violence has made even the semblance of
governance impossible in half the country. There isn't much time.
The key to Delhi lies in the outcome of the Assembly elections in
Punjab in February and Uttar Pradesh in April, for an indirect
reason: provincial MLAs have a vote in the elections for the
President of India, scheduled for later this summer. A sharp defeat
for the Congress, which is the principal UPA partner in the contest,
will reduce the government vote. Final numbers will be known only
after April, but they don't look very comfortable for the
government.
The good doctor is worried. He has shrunk away from the one thing
that could have established his political credentials better despite
being a chosen PM, and not an elected one, in any sense. He has now
refused to contest the Lok Sabha election from Amritsar. Indications
for Congress are not looking very good at the moment. Sukhbir Singh
Badal is being widely seen as the next Chief Minister, not even
Badal Sr.
So the presidential electoral collegium is eroding. The UP election
is not going to rustle up many numbers.
Dr Manmohan Singh's alliance consists the Congress, which has hogged
the plum posts, people like Lalu Yadav and the Leftys and
nodding-friends like Sharad Pawar who are drifting away though
gradually. Also, the UPA dispensation includes, (yes it does), the
much despised outcastes like Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party (SP).
If, in the Presidential contest this summer, the SP votes against
the ruling UPA nominee, in a secret ballot, he could be defeated,
making Dr Singh's government untenable. Any pre-contest deal would
necessitate a bargain, with Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh doing most
of the talking. Logic suggests that the Prime Minister should invite
this strong group of MPs to join his government, and Mulayam Singh
is not going to be content with a marginal portfolio. At all events,
a combination of agitation and unrest on the ground, and turbulence
at the top will change the character of the government, even if it
does not change the government itself.
If the Central government does not remake itself, it will wither at
gathering speed: stability is something more than the addition of
numbers.
Impossible, did someone say? Well, when was Indian politics not
impossible? If someone had told the brain-of-the-Sikhs or the Master
in 1947 that Sikhs will even have to fight for a Punjabi Suba a few
years down the line, their answer would have been: "Impossible." For
they talked of a region with a glow of freedom when the Nehrus, the
Gandhis, the Patels knew very well what was possible and what was
not.
The Congress, and perhaps even the Indian state, is now very afraid
of the voice emerging from the grassroots. People's anger will be a
crucial factor. The message from Singur, Nandigram in Bengal and
from Noida and from Ulfa-hit Assam is clear: anger is boiling over.
There cannot be another business house in India with a reputation
for integrity as high as Tata. In politics, there is certainly no
brand more closely identified with the poor than the CPI(M), flag
bearer of the Left.
If Tata and CPI(M) are under siege in Bengal, what chance do others
have? It is only a matter of time before the simmer in other states
comes to a boil. Fire encourages fire. The poor are not interested
in waiting for an election to give vent to their anger. Naxalites
are in virtual control of more than 200 districts. At least the
government is not in control in these districts. The tribals have
not moved towards the extreme overnight, or without cause. It was
gradual progression. The Maoist gun is a symbol of their despair
with elective politics and the parties that have turned democracy
into a corrupt oligarchy.
The poor oppressed are drifting towards Naxalites. You can get two
meals a day, and chicken curry twice a week if you are a Naxalite
cadre. You get far less outside. While realities like caste and
religion remain important determinants, there is a renewed, if not
entirely new, identity emerging on a parallel track, an affiliation
around poverty. The anger of those who will not accept injustice, or
indifference, in the name of economic growth will cause the decisive
swings in the elections of 2007. Discontent will not be dormant.
Weakness at the top will encourage extremists of all kinds. The Ulfa
terrorists of Assam, who killed 70 Biharis, were an omen of a more
virulent future. Those ordering daily lathi charge on farmers in
Punjab should be aware of any similar rumblings here. An alliance of
the poor has ruled rarely, but rarely has it allowed anyone to rule
if it is once forged. Simple scribes with the clarity of an innocent
call it anti-incumbency. At an evolved level, history has called it
a revolution.
17 January 2007
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