|
War Clouds in Sri
Lanka
Suppiramaniam
Makenthiran
The abrogation
of the defunct Ceasefire Agreement by the Rajapakse government,
condemned universally by the international powers, will have serious
consequences, due to the withdrawal of the Nordic Monitoring
mission.
 Many Singhalese
leaders already see the final lapse of the Tamil struggle for rights
but by all accounts that is premature. The Battle of Vanni is yet
to come. As an observer of military strategy, I feel that the
outcome of the advance into Vanni will be different from the Sri
Lankan army’s successful advance into Batticaloa.
The people of
Vanni will be united in the defence of their homeland against the
Lankan armed forces. Contrary to government propaganda, the people
of Vanni are not waiting with open arms to receive the armed forces
as liberators, though maintaining the supply of arms and ammunition
may be a difficult factor.
Sri Lanka has
General Sarath Fonseka for whom because of the strength of the armed
forces and the weak position of the Tamils in the East, the conquer
of Vanni is imminent.
But that is not
so in Vanni. Prabaharan is a master strategist, and he may sacrifice
the East to maintain hold in Vanni. The invasion of Vanni is going
to be the decisive battle. The Tamils are sizeable in numbers
though the figures do no match that of the Sri Lankan forces.
 After the
withdrawal of the Tigers from the East and Silavathurai, the army
has not advanced into Tiger territory. They are making dubious
claims of having captured some bunkers and trenches for the last ten
months.
Singhalese
extremists want no federalism or quasi federalism, no devolution, no
peace talks, no Nordic Monitors, no nothing.
During Operation
Agne Keela, when the army tried to advance towards
Elephant
Pass,
Prabaharan let Tamil women force defend the frontline. Crack
fighters were waiting on the second defence line, in case the army
broke through. But that did not happen. Agni Keela was a disaster.
The recent attempt under Mahinda administration, by the SL army to
capture Elephant Pass, also was a debacle and ended the same way.
It appears that,
to avoid the debacles of Jeyasikuru and Agni Keela, the SL army may
advance from Mannar to Poonahari along the coast ie. A32, and not
along A9. It is going to be a long haul. The Singhalese army would
be walking into Tamil areas and the fight there is going to be
bloody and bitter.
With its economy
in ruins, the Rajapakse government, which is printing money, may go
bankrupt. Things can go from bad to worse. My fear is that there is
going to be a blood bath on both sides. We can only pray that it
will not happen.
 Fighting
terrorism in
Sri Lanka is
synonymous with denying justice to the Tamil people and oppressing
them. The arbitrary detention or journalists and the winding up of
the international commission of Inquiry by the
International
Independent Group of Eminent Persons (IIGEP) - headed by former
Indian Chief Justice P N Bhagwati and stringent condemnation of
human rights violations by the British government and by European
Parliament member over the past few months, has not deterred Sri
Lanka from pressing the panic button and continuing its unilateral
war against Tamil nationalists.
Though the
author does not agree with the term “terrorist threat” used by the
British foreign minister, it is pertinent to understand the full
import of what Lord Malloch-Brown told the UN Human Rights Council.
Saying Britain accepted Sri Lanka "facing considerable terrorist
threat", the minister told the UNHRC: "The international community
condemned terrorism, but countering terrorism required respect for
human rights."
Speaking at a meeting with expatriate Tamils at the British Foreign
Office on February 25, Lord Malloch-Brown said the government of
President Rajapakse had "made political process secondary to
military process."
Tamils find the resolve of the British government encouraging. The
British Foreign Minister has said that, "We are going to go on
pushing hard to put the political negotiation back on track and this
will not be done from a bilateral position but by working closely
with Europe, UN and the Commonwealth.
While the Sri Lankan government is attempting to attack and capture
Vanni, the European Union has insisted that the government allow the
Co-chairs and the Norwegian facilitators to travel to the Wanni to
meet the LTTE to deliver key messages -- including a request to
resume the peace process, to observe humanitarian access and to
respect human rights.
With Human
Rights Watch saying recently that at least 1,500 people
"disappeared" between 2006 and 2007 -- mostly ethnic Tamils living
in the island's restive north and east, Sri Lanka has much
explaining to do to the international community.
 S.
Makenthiran is a graduate of the University of Ceylon,
Colombo
and a Fellow of the Chartered Association of Certified Accountants
of UK. He has served in Sri Lanka and different countries in
Africa including Zambia, Malawi and Botswana. He was a World Bank
Project Finance Officer, before immigrating to Canada. In Canada he
works as an accountancy, financial and tax consultant. He may be
contacted at
makenthiran@yahoo.com
2
April
2008
|
Read Also
